"Dream - One month before the voting for the 2024 presidential election, none of the three pairs of presidential and vice-presidential candidates have reached an electability of 50 percent plus one. This figure is a requirement for the presidential election to proceed in one round. So, is it possible for the 2024 presidential election to only take place in one round? Let's take a look at the results from several survey institutions."
For example, the results of the Indonesian Political Indicator survey conducted a poll from November 23 to December 1, 2023. The electability of Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka leads with 45.8 percent. This is followed by Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD with 25.6 percent and Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar with 22.8 percent. Next, the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) conducted a survey from December 3 to 5, 2023. The results show that the electability of Prabowo-Gibran leads at 45.6 percent. Close behind are Ganjar-Mahfud at 23.8 percent and the Anies-Muhaimin pair at 22.3 percent.
"Then, the Kompas Research and Development survey also recorded that Prabowo-Gibran obtained an electability of 39.3 percent. Meanwhile, the Anies-Muhaimin pair stands at 16.7 percent and the Ganjar-Mahfud pair at 15.3 percent."
Political observer, Emrus Sihombing, stated that it is impossible for the 2024 Presidential and Vice Presidential Election (Pilpres) to be held in one round. "Rationally, I think it is difficult to have it in one round because three pairs of candidates reaching 50 percent plus one vote is very difficult," said Emrus when contacted.
According to his view, in the dynamics of the political pantun exchange between the presidential/vice-presidential candidates Prabowo-Gibran and Ganjar-Mahfud, it seems very difficult for a full round to occur in the election. Emrus predicts that some votes from the two presidential/vice-presidential candidates will shift to the Anies-Muhaimin pair in the second round of the presidential election. This is considering that the electability of the Anies-Muhaimin pair is currently relatively low.
Qualitatively, Emrus continued, the presidential/vice-presidential candidate pair Ganjar-Mahfud is superior to the other two candidates. "In terms of quality, Ganjar has capabilities in the legislative field, has skills in budgeting and controlling," he added.
Emrus added, Ganjar has accumulated significant experience as a governor who has led Central Java Province for two terms.
"Meanwhile, the prospective presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto only has expertise in one specific field, namely defense and security. Furthermore, Emrus believes that in the upcoming presidential debate, Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan will be subjects of interesting attention when exchanging ideas."
"However, he continued, on the other hand Anies has a weakness because he has never been in a legislative position."
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This pair with the number 3 is also assured to enter the second round in the upcoming presidential election.
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