Pengamat: Pilpres 2024 Tak Mungkin Satu Putaran, Tren Elektabilitas Ganjar-Mahfud Naik

Observer: 2024 Presidential Election Unlikely to Be a Single Round, Ganjar-Mahfud Electability Trend Rises

Dream - One month before the voting in the 2024 Presidential Election, there is still no electability of the three pairs of presidential and vice-presidential candidates reaching 50 percent plus one. This number is a requirement for the Presidential Election to run in one round. So, is it possible for the 2024 Presidential Election to run in just one round? Let's see the results of several survey institutions.

For example, the results of the Indikator Politik Indonesia survey, which conducted a poll from November 23 to December 1, 2023. The electability of Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka is leading with 45.8 percent. Then followed by Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD with 25.6 percent and Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar with 22.8 percent. Furthermore, the Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) conducted a survey from December 3 to 5, 2023. The results show that the electability of Prabowo-Gibran is leading with 45.6 percent. Following that, Ganjar-Mahfud has 23.8 percent and the Anies-Muhaimin pair has 22.3 percent.

Pengamat: Pilpres 2024 Tak Mungkin Satu Putaran, Tren Elektabilitas Ganjar-Mahfud Naik

Then, the Kompas Research also recorded that Prabowo-Gibran obtained an electability of 39.3 percent. Then, the Anies-Muhaimin pair is at 16.7 percent and the Ganjar-Mahfud pair is at 15.3 percent.

Political observer, Emrus Sihombing, stated that it is impossible for the 2024 Presidential and Vice-Presidential Elections (Pilpres) to be held in one round. "Rationally, I think it is difficult to have just one round because it is very difficult for three pairs of candidates to achieve 50 percent plus one vote," said Emrus when contacted.

According to his view, in the dynamics of political pantun exchanges between the presidential/vice-presidential candidates Prabowo-Gibran and Ganjar-Mahfud, it seems very difficult for a full round to occur in the election. Emrus estimated that some votes from the two presidential/vice-presidential candidates will switch to the Anies-Muhaimin pair in the second round of the presidential election. This is considering the relatively low electability of the Anies-Muhaimin pair at the moment.

"Qualitatively, according to Emrus, the presidential/vice presidential candidate pair Ganjar-Mahfud is superior to the other two candidates. 'In terms of quality, Ganjar has the ability in the legislative field, has the ability in budgeting and controlling,' he added."

Emrus added, Ganjar has accumulated significant experience as a governor who has led Central Java Province for two terms of office.

Meanwhile, prospective presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto only has expertise in a specific field, namely defense and security. Furthermore, Emrus assesses that in the upcoming presidential debate, Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan will be interesting subjects of attention when exchanging ideas.

However, he continued, on the other hand Anies has a weakness because he has never been in a legislative position.

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