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Dream - Lembaga Survei Indikator Politik Indonesia asserts that the assumption of the Social Assistance (Bansos) program organized by the government of Joko Widodo is not a boost for the votes of Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka in the 2024 Presidential Election. This finding was obtained from a survey conducted with respondents who are recipients, still receiving, no longer receiving, or not receiving Bansos at all.
The Senior Researcher of Indicators, Rizka Halida, stated that all four types of respondents showed that the majority of them still chose the Prabowo-Gibran pair. "The pattern here among voters is that the majority still support Prabowo-Gibran, among those who have received social assistance, 59.7% chose Prabowo-Gibran," said Rizka in a virtual statement, quoted on Thursday, February 22, 2024.
Although the majority chose candidate 02, survey results showed that 23.0 percent of respondents who had received social assistance apparently chose the Anies Baswedan-Cak Imin candidate, and 17.3% chose Ganjar-Mahfud.
The percentage is not significantly different when respondents who have never received social assistance still choose Prabowo-Gibran with 56.9 percent. Followed by Anies-Cak Imin with 27.0 percent and Ganjar-Mahfud with 16.1 percent. "So here, we can say that among those who have received, whether they still do, no longer do, or have never received social assistance. The choices are not significantly different, as the majority still choose Prabowo-Gibran," explained Rizkia.
"In the same opportunity, Chief Researcher of Indikator, Burhanuddin Muhtadi, added factors that contributed to the landslide victory of the Prabowo-Gibran presidential candidate based on exit poll surveys. According to Burhanuddin, the high participation of voters, including young voters, Javanese ethnic voters, and NU-based voters, played a significant role in the victory. 'Gen Z, who exercised their voting rights in our sample, accounted for 23%. The national proportion is 22%. This means that the assumption stating that the younger generation tends to abstain from voting is incorrect. So, the younger the voter, the more they tend to vote for Mr. Prabowo. And it turns out that Gen Z and millennials are a larger proportion than the national average, exercising their rights on February 14th,' said Burhanuddin."
Next, the factor of voters from the Javanese ethnic group who are present at polling station (TPS) is 43.2 percent, whereas the data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) shows that the Javanese ethnic group is around 43 percent. "So, Javanese people tend to use their voting rights, including the Sundanese and others. Basically, here, the Javanese ethnic group, who are known to be pro Prabowo-Gibran based on pre-election surveys, tend to use their voting rights to vote for Prabowo-Gibran," said Burhanuddin.
The following is a translation of the text from Bahasa to English while preserving any HTML tags: "Next, from the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) voter base, the number of voters is 59.0 percent to go to the polling station. Usually, said Burhanuddin, the BY voter base is only 50-51 percent."
"This explains why Prabowo-Gibran won convincingly, based on previous surveys Prabowo-Gibran received strong support from NU circles and when they all came to the polling stations in large numbers compared to their original proportions, it would explain why the electability of Prabowo-Gibran is higher," said Burhanuddin. This exit poll survey was conducted at 3,000 polling stations spread across each electoral district. The sample was selected using stratified two-stage random sampling method. A total of 2,975 respondents were interviewed. Meanwhile, the tolerance level of error or margin of error is +/- 1.8% at a 95% confidence level."
Exit poll itself is a method to find out public opinion conducted shortly after someone comes out of the voting booth at the polling station. Generally, the questions asked tend to be not too many.
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