Dream - PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia predicts that the currently unfavorable automotive industry can improve in the fourth quarter of 2024. This is in line with the potential improvement in people's purchasing power and the decrease in Bank Indonesia's benchmark interest rate.
"We hope for a recovery at the end of the year, as there is potential for a decrease in benchmark interest rates."
The following is the translation of the given 'Bahasa' text to 'English' while preserving any HTML tags: "said Research Analyst Mirae Asset, Christopher Rusli, at the Media Day event: May by Mirae Asset Sekuritas, Monday, May 6, 2024."
Christopher explained, the increase in interest rates sucks up the circulating money in the society and triggers a rise in prices.
The purchasing power of the community has also decreased, as reflected in the sales figures of new cars which dropped by more than 23% to around 215,000 vehicle units in the first quarter of 2024 from the same period last year, around 282,000 units.
With the assumption that The Fed interest rates in the US will decrease in September and will be followed by two cuts in the benchmark interest rate of BI rate in the fourth quarter of 2024, as long as the exchange rate of the rupiah remains stable. He is optimistic that the purchasing power of the society and vehicle sales will improve by the end of the year.
Although it could improve in the fourth quarter of 2024, Christopher predicts that the performance throughout 2024 will not be as good as last year, one of which is from the side of new car sales throughout this year which is predicted to be only 900,000 units, below the market prediction of 1.1 million units.
Research Analyst Mirae Asset, Abyan Habib Yuntoharjo, added that the used car industry is still growing despite the new car sales figures being under pressure.
The following is reflected in the automotive financing figures which continue to grow steadily above 10%, despite the decline in vehicle sales, especially passenger cars, since the end of 2023 until early this year.
According to him, thus the used car industry is relatively timeless, especially because naturally, no matter how high the sales of new cars are, they will also be sold by their owners. "The ecosystem of each player in the used car industry can also support its performance, so the more complete the services from one company, the more it will support the performance of that company," said Abyan.
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